【按语】我院以绿色为底绘就绿色发展，践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”发展理念，奋力打造“两山”理论的理论研究桥头堡，产生了一批高水平且具有社会影响力的研究成果。学院官网建立“成果推介”栏目，以展示我院师生的优秀成果，传播我院师生在生态文明建设和绿色可持续发展等方面的学术观点，为“筑牢生态屏障、推动绿色发展”提供有益借鉴。

作者：常春媛等

题名：Wood-based panel futures price prediction incorporating supply chain features

期刊：Forest Policy and Economics（SSCI、JCR-Q1、影响因子3.8、学院标志性期刊）

摘要：This paper proposes a wood-based panel futures price prediction method incorporating supply chain features, aiming to improve prediction accuracy and explore price formation mechanisms. The model constructs a multi-dimensional feature system by integrating upstream material price indices including timber, chemical raw materials, and energy, as well as downstream indicators such as the construction industry prosperity index. To resolve the heterogeneity between daily price data and monthly supply chain features, we design an innovative dual-frequency fusion network (DM-FusionNet). This network processes time-series dependencies in daily data through a bidirectional LSTM branch, extracts long-term patterns from monthly features through a lightweight Transformer branch, and organically combines both types of information through a dynamic fusion mechanism. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to traditional methods, the proposed model achieves significant improvements across multiple evaluation metrics, with a 16.8% reduction in MSE and an improved R² value of 0.870. The model exhibits robust performance across different time scales and market conditions, particularly achieving a trend prediction accuracy of 96.1% over a 60-day prediction period. Feature importance analysis reveals a "dual-dominant" influence mechanism constituted by downstream demand indicators (NHPI) and upstream chemical raw material prices. This research not only enriches the methodological framework for commodity futures price prediction but also provides a practical decision-support tool for participants in the wood-based panel futures market.

作者简介：

常春媛，东北林业大学经济管理学院，工商管理专业教师。研究方向为供应链管理与运筹优化，以机器学习、深度学习等方法为工具开展量化分析与智能决策研究，已在相关领域发表学术论文多篇，主持及参与科研课题多项，并获发明专利授权1项。